Hi Max.
The chance of success has been tabled several times from PVD.
From memory, they stated the upcoming drilling and frac testing, had been independently assessed to have a 48% (may have been 42%...memory) chance of success.
They also state that the Jany (pronounced Yaney) oil drill in around 6 months, has a whopping 28% chance of success too.
Additionally, there is potential conventional exposure after Jany too.
In other words, 3 bites for the price of one.
Check out their most recent presentation.
Should cover most of what you're after in there.
Ann: Investor Presentation, page-37
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