Lynas is only producing mainly carbonates concentrates and...

First 60 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Luigithegreat

59 Posts.

25

05/02/21

21:26

Post #: 50754012
Share

Originally posted by Leapzig: ↑

Nimbut is out of school. Lynas IIRC lost hundreds of millions whilst defending the STOP LYNAS movement in Malaysia. Coupled with the fact that China slashed the prices of rare earths which almost sent them bankrupt. What was worse is that during commissioning they had major production issues and could not achieve name plate for several months if not years.

ASM could raise $1b purely via equity and they will still have just over 1/3 of the total shares owned by Lynas.

The comfort that supports my investment with ASM is the aligning macro environment for rare earths (China no longer wanting to dominate as they are more interested in domestic supply and are considered a strategic threat in supply to the western world). The other huge advantage is the years of work by Ian Chalmers and team to get the flow sheet as impeccable as it is (I have read the optimisation will propel this to even greater levels). Although there are risks in full scale production, having operated the pilot plant with ANSTO for 25 years will surely limit the possibility of construction, commissioning and production issues.

Yes Lynas is advanced but in no way is it a superior investment (safer yes - superior no).

Expand

Lynas is only producing mainly carbonates concentrates and oxides, which are at at the lower end of the value chain.
ASM do all that + metal + powders + into magnets and this is where the value and margin is.
The reality is Earnings per share will be much greater with ASM. It will also be much lower risk from a financing perspective as the off take will be for metals powders and magnets, derisking Dubbo.

see image below for value chain reference

ASM Price at posting: $4.99 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
13 Upvote

4 Great analysis

Reply