Now I've had a chance to go through the presentation, I'm feeling more confident in FFX and its direction than I ever have.
The thing that jumped out at me was capital costs. FFX has emphasised that the replacement/replication value of Morila's capex is USD$350m+, and I note that capex for Goulamina is estimated to be USD$194m.
Even with Morila making money hand over fist, it's going to be a long time until FFX has $194m in the bank from profits.
Splitting the two resources makes a great deal of sense to me. I'm keen to see the money spent to develop Goulamina, but I don't really want to see Morila put under any cashflow squeeze should there be a downturn in POG. I also don't want to see FFX being diluted.
Assuming that the new LithiumCo is structured properly, is well-capitalised and that the bankers/advisers know what they're doing, the risk of FFX SH dilution should be minimal. In the worst case scenario, FFX may need to make a capital injection into LithiumCo. Whether this is from cash on hand, CR or via a debt facility remains to be seen - and it's slightly above my paygrade to try and analyse.
Of course the devil is in the detail (as several other holders have mentioned), but I can't really see the Doc and the rest of the Board throwing SH under the bus. Not even accidentally due to a lapse in due diligence.
All IMO. DYOR, GLTAH
FFX Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held