In the first half, PPE's total billed hours were roughly 3.4M, resulting in $201M as revenue. This implies an hourly rate of $59.
Using this hourly rate and the total revenue of $176.4M in the 2nd half of FY20, we came to know that the total billed hours were 2.98M. The chart on slide 16 of the presentation shows that from Feb to June 2020, PPE billed 2.33M hours (116k/week in average) to their clients. That means in Jan 20 alone, they billed 650k hours, i.e.162K/week, suggesting the weekly hours during the pandemic (Feb-Jun) have dropped nearly 40% as compared to pre-Covid. This shows how badly PPE's business has been impacted by Covid.
In Jan. 21, the billed hours were 168K, indicating a minor increase of 3.7% on pcp, which is mostly organic, I assume.
Along with the roll-out of vaccine, starting from Feb, we should be able to see more significant top line growth.
I did a rough and purely arbitrary estimation on the weekly hours growth month by month for the 2nd half (see below). This resulted in a total revenue of $205M. Applying the 8.1% of EBITDA margin suggested by PPE for the 2nd half, we come to $16.6M in EBITDA. That means total EBITDA of $37.6M for FY21, up 22% on pcp. If we include the 2.5M of the newly acquired eCareer, the total EBITDA could be approaching $40M. With today's market cap, PPE is valued at 7-8 times EBITDA, which is a bargain for a good business with high ROE and ROIC.
Weekly Billed Hours 2H 20 2H 21 Growth Jan 162,000 168,000 3.70% Feb 130,000 143,000 10% Mar 132,000 145,200 10% Apr 100,000 130,000 30% May 105,000 136,500 30% Jun 115,000 143,750 25% Total 744,000 866,450 16.46% Total Billed Hours 2,976,000 3,465,800 16.46% Total Rev $176,353,429 $205,329,343 16.43%
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