SHM

0.68%

73.0¢ shriro holdings limited

Hmm don't forget 1H CY20 was very weak. So its easy to cycle....

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zhanginu

1,785 Posts.

482

18/03/21

12:46

Post #: 51864350

Originally posted by SteveSage: ↑
I don't disagree that this is cheap, but I am a little cautious in assuming that higher sales will continue this year (especially the 1st half of the calendar year which has traditionally been a slower period for them....and may be more so if you make the assumption that some sales were brought forward) - perhaps this is what the market is pricing in.

These are the historical financials & high level forecast:

CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020N CY2021FCT
1 Revenues 183 188 181 172 191 185
2 Gross Profit 78 80 71 67 76 76
3 Margin 42.6% 42.3% 39.4% 39.1% 39.6% 41.0%
4 Avg AUD/USD FX 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.71 0.67 0.75
5 Expenses 60 59 62 58 59 60
6 PBT 18 20 9 9 17 16
7 PAT 13 15 7 6 12 11
8 EPS - diluted 13.7 15.0 7.6 6.7 12.7 11.5
9 Avg PE 7.41 8.42 14.43 9.45 6.98 7.82

CY2020 is normalised, and PE is based on a shareprice of 90c
CY2021 is relatively conservative (but I think not unreasonable given they have had reduction in prior period sales from 1H18-1H20...2H20 was the exception)
Using those conservative assumptions, the PE is not materially out of sinc with what it has been in the previous periods with the exception of CY2018 (which was high because of CY2017 sales which they could not repeat).

Anyway, 1H21 will be interesting......I'm not across all the internet/influencer marketing stuff, but I've read somewhere that a number of big companies have scaled back their marketing spend without seeing too much change in sales......FB could just be making up engagement stats and charging higher advertising costs....would not put it past those dochebags
Expand
Hmm don't forget 1H CY20 was very weak. So its easy to cycle. And there's permanent cost savings taken out of the business that will be reflected in CY21.

I think this baby will re-rate if they can hit ~$13-14m NPAT.

SHM Price at posting: 86.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 73.0¢		Change -0.005(0.68%)		Mkt cap ! $70.38M

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Hmm don't forget 1H CY20 was very weak. So its easy to cycle....

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		CY2016	CY2017	CY2018	CY2019	CY2020N	CY2021FCT
1	Revenues	183	188	181	172	191	185
2	Gross Profit	78	80	71	67	76	76
3	Margin	42.6%	42.3%	39.4%	39.1%	39.6%	41.0%
4	Avg AUD/USD FX	0.73	0.75	0.77	0.71	0.67	0.75
5	Expenses	60	59	62	58	59	60
6	PBT	18	20	9	9	17	16
7	PAT	13	15	7	6	12	11
8	EPS - diluted	13.7	15.0	7.6	6.7	12.7	11.5
9	Avg PE	7.41	8.42	14.43	9.45	6.98	7.82

Hmm don't forget 1H CY20 was very weak. So its easy to cycle....

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