Sigh... as usual SFX volume and price action front runs the news flow, but this time good news and a push for market attention is again overshadowed by more delays. In the space of a month BFSJV and major contracts and off-takes have gone from mid Q2 out to mid Q4... Construction out from 2021 Dry Season to 2022 dry Season (as I predicted) ... and finance that was teased for Q3 now firmly at the end of 2021.
Some wanted to read last weeks Qrtly as things speeding up but with "ahead ofKMS commencing finalisation of the project financing in the June quarter."... but really, who writes "commencing finalisation"
if finance was being finalised in the June Qtr just say so in plain english right! For that matter, if finance is a simple Taurus roll over into the JV structure as guided since the YS deal was first done (and originally flagged for completion Oct last year), why the need to pay Cutfield Freeman to advise on the preferred financing strategy??? It may be SFX have something better than what Taurus is offering, only insiders know, but might also explains some of the uncertainty, delays and lack of buying saw until recently. 2nd mining trial to test for different mining method of upper ore area.... pleassseee, if they think scrapers will do the job OK in indurated ore instead of dozers just quietly test some and find out. No cause for a delay, no rush and no big deal in reality ...
So what about the 'good news' to knock some sharp edges off the pineapple being inserted?
LTR production lifted from ~400ktpa to 500ktpa by dropping the post-LTR TiO2 cut down to 50% from 53% guided in March. This has partly been achieved by cutting an extra 50,000t of Ti-Mag stream at ~25% TiO2 (my guess) into the Ilmenite product and dropping the T-Mag TiO2 grade commensurately. However, the math doesn;t add up because Ilmenite rises by 100kt product ( 38kt of TiO2 units at new 50% level) while Ti-Mag only drops by 50kt product (for 13kt of TiO2 units at 25% level). The net effect is an extra 25,000t TiO2 units of Ilmenite added to production not there at end of March, and not explained by only dropping the Ti-Mag by 50,000t?
Good news but unexplained. Maybe the mine plan has been altered over the first four years to chase higher Ilmenite grade ore which would increase overall Ilmenite TiO2 units produced and early cash flow (even if that means higher early overburden removal). Maybe the metallurgists have worked out how to improve P-Ilm recovery to Ilmenite product post-LTR, while also reducing TiO2 losses to LTR tailings... this explanation if true is a tremendous value-add technical improvement that would certainly explain the sudden market interest in buying SFX and chasing it up 10c from March. I certainly I can't see any other reason the market has suddenly found SFX love into news of further delays.
Maybe someone who talks with management can ask where the extra TiO2 units have come from, be nice for shareholders to also understand what is going on.....
(20min delay)
