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23/08/21
11:03
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Originally posted by Hopeful9:
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The final dividend increase is in line with what occurred with statutory profit. The increase in insurance costs is a concern (to above A$1 million) but probably not much PTL can do about that. Sales in NZ are a minor contributor, at c.A$15 million, to total revenue. PTL comments about container unloading difficulties. Last week in 'The Australian' and elsewhere I read how shipping lines are redirecting vessels away from the Oz-NZ routes as more profitable opportunities elsewhere. From looking at specialist marine traffic sites, there's often a backlog of ships waiting for a berth in ports like Tauranga NZ while there's bad delays in Botanay Bay, NSW and sometimes the Port of Melbourne, Vic. The new FY22 'value packs' are a good idea and perhaps ideal to be marketed through ecommerce as proposed with the Hampers with Bite acquisition. Good that PTL was able to control overall transport costs. The third strategy of PTL is export sales. This has been a failure: minimal now to mainland communist China. Last year IIRC correctly we were told that the company was 'exploring' additional opportunities. Same story this year. Skyrocketing TEU (shipping container) freight costs may be worst inbound to Oz but may also be a problem outbound. The shipping lines have so many delays that not only do they skip scheduled ports sometimes but may prioitise the unloading of import containers (i.e. to Oz) and then depart as quickly as possible. I know empty containers that should be transported back to Asia are often left behind but unsure if this is a problem also for loaded export containers. The end of the Duracell mainstream distribution agreement results in an expected lower A$3m pa in profit. That it's being supposedly replaced by something that in my view is more subject to economic uncertainties (discretionary spending, consumer sentiment, businesses lowering costs due to COVID-19 adverse effects) is a concern. I couldn't see at a quick read any mention of hand sanitiser products. PTL ws under pressure at the start of COVID-19 and did well in producing a huge amount of white king, but the sanitiser products came to market too late. Did it have to write off unsold inventory? The lack of a specified percentage of scrip that the HWB founders will take if the HWB deal goes through concerns me. Looks like they'll take the cash, although the main man may stick around at PTL for a while. The alternative view is that HWB is a terrific opportunity for the company to move into ecommece in a far better way, and that this reduces the reliance of PTL on major supermarkets that are always 'doing manufacturers over' as the chains want lower and lower wholesale prices and participation in costly promotions at store level. Time will tell.
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Lots of food for thought here and some info re shipping that was new to me, thank you. I sold on the announcement of the acquisition. I scare easily as an investor which is often a negative but not always. I found myself trying to guess what happens to demand for hampers under different macro scenarios. It feels like one I could look back on and think "oh yes that makes sense now". Gist though is the company is now a riskier proposition than it was pre acquisition imo. I think management have done ok with operating the core business, they have seemed to be conservative managers and so this acquisition feels like a philosophical change. Hopefully it is a stroke of genius for holders and PTL employees. Glta.