Hey @Kosy, it is a risk, but here's my opinion on it (which seems to align with yours)
From the perspective of accessing the resource..
We have a resource that is shallower than Jansen district, for which BHP is forking out US $5.8bn in capex to access and mine. Theirs is deeper, has no previous significant infrastructure, and in the edge of the Arctic circle. So we will be able to gain access to ours easier.
On a district level, SHP has approximately the same tonnage for about 40% of the potash that BHP has, putting SHP in one of the largest identified deposits in the world. So capex costs here start to become important but I'd be gobsmacked if we saw anywhere near the capex to develop our district in the middle of Europe with access to skills, communications, and more supportive weather. Obviously DFS for Project O is key here to making this district sale program possible, and we can only speculate on capex... I believe we will be fine because the team already know the top line numbers - they knew these over a year ago, before potash started to really rise in price, before sanctions, before war, before a shift in food security policy and sentiment.
Final piece of the puzzle really then becomes opex processes and costs. Obviously this will be what we're waiting for later this year, but despite the Russia challenges on gas, by the time we get project O into production Germany will have clearer energy strategies already in place, and we already have the support of the regional Prime Minister and locals
Long story short, for me, SHP is a "when" not an "if"
SHP Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
