Of course I have a vested interest, why else would I be here… in regards to your points
I disagree they paid too much for BLD, it was a takeover without paying a premium, pretty shrewd purchase IMO. The US assets which you now describe as excellent were regarded as the problem with the group 18 months ago, they overpaid for headwaters originally, hindsight is 2020 but personally still like boral. The assets they have particularly the quarries just can’t be replicated in this day and age, add in a great portfolio of property. Theres not much debt in Boral itself and I like the long-term infrastructure exposure. You have to give them a chance before declaring it a failure, they only began cost cutting and turnaround mode in the last 6 months. That doesn’t happen overnight, it’ll be 3-5 years. In regards to earnings “collapsing” are you looking at the prior year figures adjusted to remove the US operations? if not it’s a pointless comparison. Decent hit on the weather and inflation but collapsed is a stretch. You do realise the majority of boral price change is due to the capital return? Based on your comments on previous threads I’m not sure you do. Time will tell which one of us is right but that’s what makes a market
In regards to general debt, they have more than enough cash flow (probs 500mish) from westrac and coates to the meet the debt servicing. Most likely roll the maturing debt into a new facility. Potentially look at selling some of the stakes in the energy assets and use to proceeds to pay down debt but, personally wouldn’t mind if they sold some of SWM but unlikely given the Stokes attachment;
You mention falling energy prices, I think that’s a pretty ridiculous comment. Falling in what context, the last two weeks from $120 a barrel? Come on mate. The development cost of Crux is a fair point but likely sell down their share of it;
Western flank for beach was unfortunate, I hold it directly so know the pain. They are in a different place now though, entering the LNG market a pretty opportune time and have some solid projects. Time will tell on this one, I’m pretty neutral but like having energy exposure within the group. In relation to the class action, how long have you been investing in Australia? These things are always settled out of court for significantly less than the ridiculous claims the parasite litigation funders initially propose. Also do you understand the concept of a limited liability corporation?
In relation to the Robert smith defamation, “hundreds of millions” is a ridiculous comment, the worst estimate I’ve seen is 10 mil but this is now a private matter between stokes and him – happy to be corrected but last thing I saw was seven is not directly involved
To summarise you have been making ridiculous comments about debt and solvency for weeks, while I’d agreed its on the higher end of where I’d like it, they hold majority stakes in 2 quality business’s with significant cash flows, if you don’t think the debt can be managed then why on earth do you own it. Time will tell on Boral and Beach, both turnaround stories but both have fine prospects. You also repeatedly mention “failing Australian economy” what world are you living in, we are facing headwinds particularly from inflation but f* I wouldn’t want to see you in a real downturn
Expand
(20min delay)