LTR 4.15% $1.04 liontown resources limited

Ann: Investor Presentation, page-16

  1. 378 Posts.
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    It's a really interesting slide that one @DaisyA and I wondered why it was included. Maybe it was the question from Stuart of Bell Potter in the last investor presentation that signalled the market's desire to get an idea what LTRs SC6 revenue would be? Tony certainly was on the spot in the call and of course unable to answer due to commercial sensitivity.

    The line chart you reference is probably a big hint that the contracted sell price formula references the rolling average Spodumene Price as a percentage of the Hydroxide Price. Probably something like a 12 month rolling average makes sense and would give price stability for all contracted parties to forecast. Looking at the chart that would put us currently around 7.5% SC6 price compared to Hydroxide using the MK1 eyeball method.

    There would be a contracted offtake discount and I have no clue what these may be, any thoughts? 1% 1.5%? LG perhaps gets the largest discount for signing first, extra discount for the additional 5 year option. I guess chemistry tells us we're probably not going below 6% given our 6% Lithia content Spodumene concentrate.

    Processing the numbers as at today and Fastmarkets have Hydroxide selling for USD$75,000/tonne and steady for the last 4 weeks. Were LTR to sell SC6 at 7.5% of the current market sell price for Hydroxide, that's USD$5,625/tonne. Note the DFS has forecast sell pricing at $1,392/tonne which is a mere fraction at 1.86% of the current Hydroxide price. I really can't see the contracted offtake discounts knocking our SC6 sell prices down that far from today's hypothetical 7.5% starting point. My best guess is that if we were selling into our contract offtakes today, we'd be 250% up on our DFS from USD$1392/tonne and knocking on the door of USD$5K/tonne.

    Not getting ahead of myself, still 2 years of market fluctuations before we enter this phase but just amazing numbers being played out.

    @Anteviariel is your financial model at +90% price % increment big enough for this job?


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4483/4483289-b28d1e7d33572c9c21bd78b41e71bdb4.jpg

 
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