Some ASX listed logistics companies for comparison as 95% of DW8 revenue is via logistics.
CLX, KSC, LAU & SLH are all trading at about 0.3-0.4 x FY22 revenue when cash removed from MC with KSC as low as x0.26. PE's are about 10-15. They generate hundreds of millions of revenue, NPAT & pay about 3-4% dividend. They have cash balances between $30M to $64.7M. Revenue YOY growth rates are 18.5% CLX, 12.7% KSC, 27% LAU & 22% SLH. The average growth rate is 20% YOY.
About $17.1M of DW8 FY22 revenue is logistics x 0.35 = $5.99M + $2M cash = $7.99M MC equivalent to the above.
MC is currently $21.5M - $7.99M = $13.5M for Kaddy / $1M revenue = x13.5 multiple.
Many tech/growth companies are currently trading at x1-3 FY22 revenue when cash is removed from MC. And they are growing revenue +50-100% YOY. Kaddy should be $1M revenue x1 = $1M MC as there has been no growth & company has funding issues.
DW8 logistics $7.99M + Kaddy $1M = $8.99M MC equivalent comparisons or about 0.33c SP.
GP margin via DW8 preliminary report was a low 26.5% so for every $1M revenue growth they will reduce cash burn by $265k. It will take just over 5 years to reduce $10M cash burn to nil at a high growth rate of 25% pa for logistics. If Kaddy can grow GMV at 50% YOY to about $100M x 3% fees = $3M GP they should break even in 4 years.
There will be about 3.5B SOI if they raise all funds during current CR/SPP. They will require numerous CR's until break even.
12 months require about $8M / 1c SP = 800M new shares 24 months require about $6M / 2c SP = 300M new shares 36 months require about $4M / 3c SP = 133.3M new shares 48 months require about $2M / 4c SP = 50M new shares
There will be about 4.783B SOI. Logistics revenue will be $52.2M @ 25% YOY CAGR after 5 years x 0.35 = $18.27M MC equivalent to ASX listed logistics companies. Kaddy revenue will be about $3M x 20 multiple when growing 50% YOY & favourable market conditions = $60M MC.
FV will be about $78.27M MC / 4.783B SOI = 1.6c SP. In a pumped market may be worth double. May need more/less dilution than allowed for if CR SP is higher/lower. Significant dilution required before break even.
Extrapolate forwards another 5 years @ 25% YOY CAGR logistics will generate $159.3M revenue x 0.35 = $55.75M MC.
Kaddy at 50% YOY CAGR after 5 years will generate $22.8M revenue x 20 = $456M MC for a combined MC of about $512M / 4.783B SOI = 10.7c SP. Multiples would have to double to see 20c SP again after 10 years.
DW8 Price at posting:
0.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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