Ann: Investor Presentation, page-207

FWIW 2 weeks on from our last chat I perceive risk to be higher, perhaps now mid risk rather than low risk.

I had been concentrating on the 2 issues of feed grade and water, and viewed them as quickly fixable which I still do. However after re-listening to the latest webinar last night, and digesting things over this last week, I have several concerns which have moved the needle.

Skilled Labour being the main one. The idea of using that extra 2.6-2.8mtpa capacity, perhaps to offset increased AISC, doesnt look like happening anytime soon. DR said the re-jigged BCM and staff requirements where done to "be sustainable for years to come". At 5:10 into the webinar DR clearly said moving fwd labour and sustainability is the main focus i.e. issue. I dont think this is a quick fix

The other issues are A. the amount hedging, which as a % of prodn has increased and will therefore have a greater impact on profit and B. the % of operating cashflow needed to repay debt (or it will be restructured over a greater period of time which has its own disadvantages). The new financial model seems to be ~25% off of previous forecasts. IMHO it will turn back up but will take more time than previously anticipated, so there is that opportunity cost issue coming into play.

He also mentioned "working through structural issues with Haoma and the ASX" with respects Parra lithium. Could be nothing but will keep an eye on, certainly wasnt a smooth sailing type comment.

Further good results from BSW could right the sentiment sooner. In the meantime I will make do with the results I get from BWS (Beer Wine Spirits - aussie bottle shop for our UK friends)

PS: Whilst the risk has increased so has the reward at these levels. I still have another order in at 25c.