CYM 4.55% 4.2¢ cyprium metals limited

NPV is a good guide to assess the economics of a project, but...

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    NPV is a good guide to assess the economics of a project, but the figure is as good as the assumptions the study used to churn out that number. If you're complaining about too much of the NPV being priced in already, then you're basically of the view that the assumptions used in the NPV is how the macro will end up leading up to production. In which case, existing producers today would be viewed as overvalued since they're already priced at $13k/t copper price (assuming efficient markets, etc).

    The NPV is also only a valuation of a project within the scopes defined in the study. In this case, that's only the oxide and heap leach retreat restart at Nifty. If that's the only value you see in the company, then that's fine, some don't like the risk and uncertainty of investing in something that hasn't had economic studies undertaken on them, but to deem it to have no *potential* upside is a little over the top. Indeed, the sulfide resource at Nifty may end up not being economical, or at any of the several other tenements CYM have rights over, but then again, it could potentially also have significant upside value, and considering Nifty itself is a 900kt+ JORC resource of which the majority isn't considered in the restart study (and thus having been assigned $0 value in the NPV), I'd say taking a bet that there's a good amount of potential further upside in Nifty alone for CYM isn't such a bad bet to make - especially since once CYM starts to generate cash flow, it'll be much easier to undertake expansions without any/as much dilution.

    TLDR - NPV is useful, but only for what it represents.
 
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