Vlad was a lot more optimistic sounding than the written presentation. Ebitda margins expected to remain around 9%, pbt marging 3.5 to 4%. I don't know what else the market was looking for but those 2 numbers all but confirm $8 as a great buy. There is lack of clarity regarding revenue growth. I have assumed no revenue growth which I think will turn out to be conservative as the year end approaches. Anyway, even with the high interest rates its providing a net 5% yield. Looking out to the year end, I see interest rates peaking or having already started coming down and FY24 earnings of around 50c. With the company approaching record profit numbers, I can't imagine the SP being in the single digits at year end. My expectation for 50c in FY24 is based on PBT ratio coming up to 4% and mild revenue growth to 3400m. This gives EPS of 52c so 50c is conservative in my opinion. Key drivers for lift in the PBT ratio is reducing interest rates, reducing inventory and improvement in the NZ business to bring its PBT ratio closer to AU. I am surprised the SP keeps going lower. Fun fact, the SP is close to being less than that of DTL which would be first or the first in a very long time.
DDR Price at posting:
$7.93 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
