I suspect this share price has been driven almost exclusively by...

I suspect this share price has been driven almost exclusively by tax loss selling in recent months, as opposed to company fundamentals.

Because if they get to the "$60m-Revenue-by-2025" objective, even at the current 18%+ EBIT margin (so zero scale benefits assumed) that would result in EBIT of close to $11m (and EBITDA of ~$14.0m given the current $3.3m pa D&A run-rate).





I think that, if that outcome does eventuate, the market is likely to happily re-rate the stock, probably to an EV/EBIT multiple of 10x (corresponding EV/EBITDA = 7.5x).  So EV of $110m.

Assuming there is no further build of the $4.0m net cash balance (unlikely),  that would translate into a Market Cap of ~$114m (or $1.05/share)

The question is how they get to $60m in two years' time, when the LTM Revenue was only $36m, and the current Revenue run-rate is around the $40m pa level.

Will require >20% pa growth.

Will be a tough ask if it is to be done purely organically, so I assume it includes an assumption of an acquisition or two.

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