So this is the crux of the project proposition.
- The lead price that underpins the DFS is an average of US$ 2260/t through to '27.
- Silver is an add on and while it improves the business case, is a secondary consideration. Its primarily a Lead project (obviously).
- The Lead price has been ranging between US$ 1600 - 2700 /t for 13 years. Pretty stable supply and demand!
- Its ascending trend line from 2020 appears to be breaking down at ~ US$ 2046/t.
- According to leads history, there's a reasonable chance the technical break continue down to at least major support at US$ 1907/t.
- If it breaks up, there significant monthly / weekly resistance around US$ 2200/t and still below the DFS numbers.
- The FED is juicing the market leading into the '24 election cycle using the TGA and reverse Repo facility. That is a potential poor GDP setup for post '24 and therefore for commodities - not that they aren't under performing now.
Based on the above, the potential outlook using the established DFS numbers, do we think finance is closer than it was 1 year ago? I don't know what the business case looks like with a lower DFS number, but if the financiers don't like it at $2260, they won't like it as a lower price.
Perhaps someone has another positive outlook, which needs articulation.
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