1) What statistics is this based on? Pharma, or Medtech Pass /...

1) What statistics is this based on? Pharma, or Medtech Pass / Fail stats? I would like to understand the data you are using to support that statement.
2) I agree with you that no suitor will build their bid model around a potential 2028 figure with those assumptions. There are many books available on how an M&A department might take a view on the current value of AVR and the possible offer price. But most will also take into account the current Market Cap, ownership structure (Top 20 %), and the where shareholders are likely to cash out. I can see a company offering a 10x current share price or anything silly like that. But they would look at a healthy premium if they see value. And listed companies tend not to get the same premium as non-listed as price discovery has already been established in the market cap to some extent.. Whereas this can be much more easily manipulated by VC etc int he private company space and then easier for a public company to justify to their shareholders..

My opinions only.