I reminded everybody of the tax loss aspect just to give an idea of a possible driver of the share price short term.
Not long after that we have the next qly report. I believe in the tech, but will want to see signs of commercial success. Where I feel I am weak is in the economics of the units. How many and how much per unit is what matters now. How far will patients have to travel to access a unit on average? What percentage of cancer clinics will be willing not to have a unit, and send their sick patients elsewhere for the test? (I'm throwing in a partisan aspect there - lol). I don't believe anybody knows the answer, not even management. Just guesswork.
And then there is the pricing lever - that can be optimised to gain the best result possible, as we get more information. After all the units are in a monopoly position, and are a desperate want. There is an alternate model to charge per test, would require some significant changes. Could be a good stage 2 option once wide adoption is in place. I think the more adoption of the units takes place, the better than negotiating position.
No matter what - I believe every lymphedema risk patient will be using these units, or will be taking unnecessary risk without it. Since I don't have a handle on the economics I am giving it the benefit of the doubt.
IPD Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
