All in costs for MLX in 2019 were A$12295 per tonne, The annual construction input inflation rate came in at 19.6% for the year 2021 alone (so if you think there was no inflation at all in 2020 or in 2022 or in 2023 or in 2024 then go ahead and dream on. So even with the most generous allowance of no inflation in 2020 and 2022-2024 your all in cost of A$12295 is now an AIC in the realms of A$14700 at the very least and copper in AUD terms is now around A$15408 so thats a pretty skinny margin of only $700 per tonne.
Now back in 2019 the AUD/USD exchange rate was 0.68 or 0.69 and its now 0.66 so a little marginal win there on exchange rates, but the costs of diesel and shipping along with labour and all the other consumables/reagents and contractor prices have all gone the wrong way since 2019 and thats before you consider that to turn on the sulphide concentrator you need to hire a workforce, restore ventilation, dewater and rehabilitate the underground mine and fix anything that has broken/rusted out/blocked up in the mill since 2021, so thats 3-6 months of spending money before the copper concentrate starts to flow.
If they could switch it on right now instantaneously they might just be cash flow positive but in the real world there are lead times so I think the incentive price for realistically switching on Nifty is yet to be reached, in my opinion, might still need to be higher.
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