In theory it all sounds about right - gross margins running at ~60% for the last 4 semi-annual reports, but the challenge is that the 3 businesses (detect, access & Illuminate) are very different in nature and IMO have very little in terms of overlap - yes you can sell more access/illuminate products when you get a detect customer, but arguably the margins are not going to be mush worse off if you just buy a 3rd party product (in fact probably better given you don't need to maintain the infrastructure of running/maintaining those businesses through the business cycle).
If we assume that access and illuminate are not going to deliver huge upside & growth over an extended period, then you focus on detect; below table reflects the semi-annual revenues excluding IMOD and although you can see a slight improvement in FY2023, 1H24 fell back and the question is then whether they have the ability to take this business to another level.
Access does ~$5m per annum, while Illuminate does ~5m pa, so you are left with detect to carry pretty much all the growth they have signaled over the next 2 yrs........my big question mark is what has changed so significantly that the FY24 sales of 19-23m in detect is going to improve to $24-34m and then even further in FY26?
Perhaps they will prove us wrong (I'm sure all holders have their fingers crossed), but there have been multiple occasions in the past (Aura IQ, Capital repayment, sale of logistics business, dividend payment & capital raise) which seems to indicate that the board IMO are not fit for purpose to serve the company nor shareholders very well.
Revenues 1 1H 2019 6,371 2 2H 2019 6,075 3 1H 2020 8,466 4 2H 2020 4,492 5 1H 2021 5,413 6 2H 2021 6,102 7 1H 2021 4,995 8 2H 2021 5,300 9 1H 2022 6,624 10 2H 2022 5,349 11 1H 2023 8,674 12 2H 2023 9,767 13 1H 2024 7,798
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