AVA ava risk group limited

I joined the call today, and a couple of comments from my side:...

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    I joined the call today, and a couple of comments from my side:
    - I can't see how Mal continues to say they made forecast, when in the 1H24 presentation their low forecast was for total revenues of 30.4m & EBITDA of 0.1m......we ended up with revenues of 30.2m (yes small miss), but EBITDA of -0.9m (pretty big miss!)
    - I asked whether Access will be profitable given it made a loss of $1m even with record revenues and Mal did not seem to realise that it was not profitable, and then Neville Joyce said a few things again about revenues
    - Illuminate is in a even bigger hole with a loss of ~$3m, but it appears that they are not prepared to answer those tough questions
    - I asked about paying dividends & David Cronin mentioned that board has agreed to pay if positive EBITDA and no concerns around cash at the moment (despite the business having negative cashflow for each of the last 2 years, paying a dividend and then having to raise money he did not think capital management was an issue). Then he added that they have sufficient cash unless they get a big order.....I mean this guy does not seem to understand the basics around cashflow

    The only positive is that the backlog and potential for Aura AI seems strong (a& perhaps Mal is responsible for really driving this), but that business is having to carry the others and we continue to see the board ill-equipped to make smart decisions about value creation for shareholders.

    Even the Telstra order seems underwhelming....4-5m in FY2025 (given 12 mths of trials, and then another 6 mths since contract, and then still further trials)

    It seems like they have a winning product in detect, and they haven't really leveraged/sold that product as effectively as they could (the logistics business clouded things, and then the IMOD order also didn't reflect a normal run rate), and perhaps Mal is finally investing in the product and more use cases, but Access & Illuminate are taking attention and resources from that core seemingly winning product.

    Cronin needs to go.......I mean to still want to pay out EBITDA while not generating cashflow for over 24 mths is pure insanity!!



 
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