From my calculation AVA will need book $28-30M in H2 to meet the lower end of FY25 projection. Either way, it's not looking good.
I totally agree with your estimation. I think it would be pretty reasonable to expect AVA achieving $18.5M order intake in H2 FY25 and a full year revenue of $33-35M with EBITDA being positive. It's not incredible but I'll take 10-20% growth rate any time of the day.
I can see the management team is on the right track. I know they've done whole bunch of stupid things that were irritating, including the dividen & capital raise combo, high on crack 3-year forecast, and overpromised Telstra deal/trial. But still, we've seen some sort of growth and new technologies since Mal joined the company. Also, I do believe that there's still lots of potential in BQT and GJD. The new LX LoRA does look promising.
Anyway, I'm comfortable to hold this company for another year. Maybe I'll even buy more.
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