I’ve made it through the PFS while trying to juggle a time of year that comes with many commitments. The disastrous cap raise reminded me that it was also something that I had to do for my own investment since the bod are asking for more money…from me too.
What I’d like to summarize here relates to the road forwards. The board have indicated in the cap raise that the primary activity in 2025 is a DFS. So, the questions are, what will the DFS give us and how much work is required to do this?
First off, by only committing to a DFS (rather than commit capital to restarting the cathode plant), the board imo is committing themselves towards an exit plan. Loosely, this plan is (again imo), derisk project economics and be able to present something that a financier or takeover partner would want to see. A DFS historically would allow the bod to ‘claim’ a higher percentage of the NPV as an asking price. So, the motivation for a DFS is to get a better price when this thing flips. I’d speculate ~30% NPV but depends on where the final balance sheet sits.
So, the DFS gives us a better ask price. Typically, it also gives us better economics through more accurate pricing estimates and optimized schedules, mine plans, sequence of activities, and other strategies etc. Many items (DFS chapters) such as geology, history, ecology, permitting, etc. are complete. There will also be no additional drilling to convert inferred material to measured or indicated, so resource size will not change. On metallurgy, as we are dealing with a brownfields site, I would expect that most of the work on metallurgy is already complete with maybe some work to prove up the grinding size and flotation effects due to converting SAG mill to ball mill etc.
What’s left over is: obtain better pricing and optimize the oxide haulage. One will raise the NPV, and one will lower it. I do not expect too much different. Remember, the project is relatively capex insensitive and hinges mostly on FX and commodity pricing. How long should this exercise take? From my experience, it can be done in 6 months. The effort to convert to DFS level looks minimal.
Back to the strategy that I see the board doing. Do the DFS which should cost $5-6m. Increase the ask price since the project has been derisked. HOPE, that the commodity price has increased as many pundits and forecasters are predicting. Unload the project in H2 CY2025. Ask price? $350-400m. Subtract a whole whack of debts – takeover share price may be 7c if lucky. Risk / reward? I would not blame ppl for selling now and certainly I will not participate in the CR in any way.
An earlier post I said no plan and no timeline going forward, just hope. While there is a plan, it does not involve mineral processing or copper plating. For this mob, I hope that this is all they do. They do not have the experience to resurrect and build this project. The hope is in the stars and commodity pricing aligning. Watch out for a bumpy 2025 to disrupt that. Timeline? There will not be another cap raise so again, expect H2 CY2025. Are they serious about building this plant? They would have called by now.
My thoughts only, hoping I am wrong, and something turns on its head and gives me 30c. Have a merry Christmas all. Chat again in 2025.
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3.4¢ |
Change
0.002(6.25%) |
Mkt cap ! $70.16M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.3¢ | 3.4¢ | 3.3¢ | $71.24K | 2.156M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 258437 | 3.2¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.4¢ | 2709891 | 8 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 178437 | 0.032 |
5 | 495435 | 0.031 |
7 | 1378999 | 0.030 |
5 | 556794 | 0.029 |
8 | 937679 | 0.028 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.034 | 2016427 | 6 |
0.035 | 2676428 | 6 |
0.036 | 636666 | 4 |
0.037 | 450000 | 1 |
0.038 | 70000 | 1 |
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