Thata fair enough but why the drop from 85% to 49% specificity...

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Rorbag

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26/03/25

13:58

Post #: 78423371
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Originally posted by bigbullasx: ↑

The test is designed to rule out cancer, so its 91% sensitivity is the key performance measure. However, due to its low specificity—it isn’t effective for confirming cancer—it must be used alongside mammography.

Galleri test will give you insights why this BREASTEST plus rule out cancer test is important.

Now, the Australian market opportunitues (conservative approach):

In Australia, there are 1.8 million screenings annually.
Approximately 40% of these screenings involve women with high-density breasts (despite BCAL's internal estimate of 50%, Vicki Durston from the Breast Cancer Network reported 40% in the 7 News report).
Of those, about 10% require further investigation.

This means the target market is 10% of 40% of 1.8 million, which equals 72,000 tests [10 % of (40% of 1.8 million) = 10% of 720,000 = 72,000 tests].
Lets assume, BCAL captures roughly 25% of that market—about 18,000 tests [25% of 72,000 = 18,000 tests]
—translating to an annual revenue of approximately AUD 5.4 million (18,000 tests × AUD 300 per test).

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Thata fair enough but why the drop from 85% to 49% specificity in 2 years? Are you saying specificity % should be disregarded? I believe FDA have a cut off at 51%.

BDX Price at posting: 11.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Thata fair enough but why the drop from 85% to 49% specificity...

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Thata fair enough but why the drop from 85% to 49% specificity...

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