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0.2¢ morella corporation limited

Good one Mmoore, Yes the assumptions i shared are little more...

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bgbuc1

90 Posts.

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06/08/17

20:28

Post #: 26323443
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Originally posted by mmoore1957 ↑

Mr bgbuc1. I'm interested in the assumptions underlying your numbers. You say SP A$1.07 to A$1.24. Let's take the midpoint A$1.15 divided by your PE of 12 gives an EPS of 9.58cps. Multiply this by 1692m shares (Including warrants exercised) and a PAT of A$162m appears. My FY2019 forecast uses the following assumptions:
1. 6% Li2O FOB Price = US880/t
2. Production 6% Li2o = 219ktns
3. AUDUSD = 0.80
4. C1 FOB = A$316/t
5. Royalty = 6%
6. Overheads = A$6m
7. Depn = A$7m
8. Interest = A$20m
9. Tax Rate = 19%. (Utilization of Tax Losses)
10. NOS = 1692m
The above assumptions give a:
1. PAT = A$101m which is 62% of your number
2.EPS = 5.95cps which is 62% of your number
Please compare my assumptions to the ones in your model, as I am very interested to know where the rather large differences are.

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Good one Mmoore,
Yes the assumptions i shared are little more bullish than yours. My model has a
1. bad case
2. base case and
3. bull case.

Your calculations above are between my bull and base.

I have not included in any of these scenarios the prospect for expansion. Perhaps I will at some stage.

AJM Price at posting: 18.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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