I agree with everything you're saying. Except that your numbers may be too conservative. At the time of the BFS phosphate prices were at multi-year lows and have recently begun a rebound.
The BFS, works on an estimate of $71 AUD for sale price... ($54USD) which equates to the $14 million AUD annual EBIDTA. given that the numbers are now closer to $100USD ($132AUD) pictured above you can re do the maths, subtracting the $11 opex and land at.....
306,000 tons X $122AUD sales price =
$37,332,000AUD EBIDTANow i am not entirely sure how sensitive this all is to currency fluctuations in the BRL, USD and AUD.... that math is too hard for me.
