solid approach Flaming. That’s good. Keep it simple on the main prize - gold.
I am highly sceptical of mainstream economists and have worked with them at snr level.
on RBA & rates I do all my own research. Remember, I started calling a drop of 50bps in 2019 we’ll over 12 months ago. I can assure you no research or economist agreed. Other than a few colleagues in my industry with access to the same leading indicators I have. 50 bps drop is a very high probability.
I wont go into how frustrated I am with RBA and media and populist politics having driven this and then hoped for a deus ex machina to ignore it. Australia will go through a lot more pain. And it was avoidable. Wait and see what happens to inflation (will be 0 for the quarter). Emergency meetings in Canberra on how to reverse home borrowing policy but how to do while saving face. Investor caps now all released. There will be more COF pressure from O/S on domestic borrowing. So banks will probably be lifting rates. Meanwhile a drop in rates domestically won’t incentivise spend. No confidence and small business not liquid to generate work
discretionary spending was shocker in 2H18 - figures only released recently. Discretionary spend even worse in last two months. I inquired with the medical association as a leading indicator on recent income from sales levels. members stated discretionary medical procedures falling by up to 50%. The quote from a committee member was customers/patients are choosing pain and defering procedures as long as they are not material health related. I could go on. I won’t. I am annoyed that RBA won’t do 50 in one hit.
You get get my point. Anyway, all good for SLR. And good to talk
cheers
pez
