Okay, so it's time for some more ramping for my learned friends above, With Hank we know that he'll likely deliver early on his promises so let's look at those.
In Dec Hank said the following.
- Expect the atomizer to start installation on April 1st. Well ahead of schedule (Tick maybe finished before April 1st!!!!!)
- Capital raise was 50% oversubscribed in difficult market to raise funds (Tick)
- Advanced discussions to sure up finance in corporate bank. (Completed and Ann, Tick)
- Finalizing financial strategy with investment Bank (Completed and Ann Tick)
- Finalizing the purchase of a second atomizer (Completed and Ann Tick)
- Advancing agreements for both Feedstock and offtake agreements. (Feedstock Ann 2,5 ton in the bag TICK) You know what that means, next up OFFTAKE!
- Advancing talks on Govt funding.
Then he says, we are expecting a very busy March Qtr.
So, he has delivered all the ticks above, we are waiting on 2 things. Offtake and Govt funding. To this point, the story has been great and the advancement of the story ahead of time. So, when do we get to the meat and potatoes? Well, seems pretty soon. We're well and Truley in the March Qtr and he has delivered Early on everything else so far. HOW REFRESHING IS THAT FOR AN ASX listed company?????????
I still believe that we will likely get our first offtake agreement from Castheon as they are a great fit for us. I posted about this back in Feb, I still think it's the most likely. In a way irrelevant as I'll be happy for anyone to buy a few ton
So what about Govt funding. My guess is as they will be employing a decent group of experts and locals that there will be some good incentives. Then you also have the local labs that will be needing c103 and these all get funded by the DoD. So we likely won't see the $$ up front but as we progress will receive Tax incentives and grants to push production. Atomizers? Feedstock, we know we've got 10 years of dirt cheap 65% cheaper electricity. But I would imagine it will be grants, funding of 10 of millions of US$$$$.
But next we look at the offtake agreements. In Dec again Hank suggested they were in advanced talks with MULITBLE PARTIES for offtake agreements. So in the first FY they suggested they could offload 17 Ton. (Well they can make it, so lets go with they can sell it also???) But to be on the safe side lets say they only make and sell what is needed for the first year and thats only 10 ton. Why, because 10 is a nice number to calculate. (But remember they are saying 17 ton, and Hank to this point has under promised and over delivered.)
10 ton or tonne of c103 = 10,000kgs. (remember the charts in the presentation was for only the premium powder so 34 ton will be produced year 1 so add a little for less quality)
10,000kgs (Survey of C103 PBF powder price indicates range of $4,150 to $5,385 / kg) so between $41-53.8 Million Aud. for revenue FY 2025.
If they get the full 17 ton and at a high price range then it's closer to $90 Million. So I think we can say somewhere between these numbers is the truth. Whichever way you look at it, it is likely that my suggestion of a SP above 85c by Christmas is a bit like Hank, likely to be a few months earlier than predicted.
BTW, we were expecting the commission of the atomizer June 30th. So again was Hank being safe on this, most likely. 1st April to June 30th. But the build started 25th febish so maybe the commissioning of the Atomizer I'm going to guess around Mid/late May. Lets see how that timeline fits
On a final note I was accused by the people above (no gone) of ramping.
Well, lets say at 15c the ramps started to get louder. I posted on the STT thread a big RAMP about 3DA, the price at the time was 18c. Since then the SP has gone up 120%. That was in Dec and then an update in Feb. So they can call it a ramp all they like, but hey, 50c next week is a possibility. Only the procrastinators are calling it a ramp. Chart is a cracker; Hank is a cracker and 3DA has still got rocket fuel ready to burn. ALL IMO DYOR
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