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0.5¢ oncosil medical ltd

Ann: Investor Update, page-42

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LBernstein

16 Posts.

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05/09/20

14:33

Post #: 47112348
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Originally posted by 123John: ↑

Just finished reading through the various posts but more importantly, well at least in my opinion the medical presentations of their clinical trials.

What strikes me as very odd is the sample size for approval as a medical device seems to only be 50 recruits, is this normal for medical devices?

In comparison to drugs a phase 2 or phase 3 trial of a drug will often run 200-300 recruits per study arm to get a statistically meaning result for efficacy and superiority.

Looking at the New Zealand estimate of the addressable market suggests that Oncosil would be priced at $25k USD per patient, which would put it on par for current costs of private chemotherapy. $43M/1719 patients p.a. Based on the Oncosil presentation figures. Is this what Oncosil projects to take in as addressable revenue extra over to the costs of administering the device and cost of the chemo drugs?

The PanCO study is Oncosil + chemo open drugs, which would put the likely cost of total treatment around $60k USD if paid for privately and the $25k USD in the presentation does not include the cost of chemo.

In NZ, as an example, pharmac funding has not yet been approved or even appears to be under consideration. So the addressable market would be much smaller than suggested until the price drops for the combined treatment.

Extrapolating to the global addressable market using NZ as a baseline, it it likely 5% of the market will be able to self fund until efficacy is widely established so that private insurance is willing to cover the costs. Addressable market in the short term of $150M USD.

Will keep an eye on this one, given the lack of peer reviewed studies and the small sample size of the trials. I think there is a real the risk of not being able to commercialise quickly and therfore further dilution and capital raises to fund marketing and pro bono treatment to establish a successful track record of treated patients.

Cost of trying to sell the product to oncologists and establish in the market will be significant. Not happy to buy at current price, but might look at putting in a limit buy at a price I'm happy at next week to test the waters.

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Out of sheer curiosity, what price would you be happy with this week assuming no new developments?

OSL Price at posting: 13.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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