I disagree, whether you know it or not, you are either...

I disagree, whether you know it or not, you are either consciously or subconsciously performing your own sentiment analysis on this very forum whereby you involve yourself in arguments, criticisms or comments. Sentiment analysis has been a major breakthrough in stock market analysis, "sentiment analysis has also been used to predict the price of bitcoin in real time" (they used Bitcoin as an example because it is universally understood, the source article actually performs its sentiment analysis on stocks, not crypto) source: Liapis, C., Karanikola, A., & Kotsiantis, S. (2023). Investigating Deep Stock Market Forecasting with Sentiment Analysis. Entropy, 25(2).


Source: Hot copper users' speculative predictions, whose 'vote' is derived from their recent posts. A user was categorised as 'good news sentiment' if they made a prediction about whether they thought the news was 'good', and so on and so forth.


Source: Production wells, Commerciality, Monetise, Oil Trucked; Wilko16 69541910, Feral54 69543088, sus 69526107, mwatts 6954435469526981, Spitfire 69526169, Krakour 69523174, Take over, more CUPET involvement, Joint Venture+; rushrush 69521037, charkie 69557533, 1956 69526945, Sharetrader78 69525335, hombre cara 69523330, signalFollower 69566791, Flow rates, Flow to surface, Great results, Extended flow test; the flow 69542571, mattymcc 69519401, alexei ii 69545756, Vince120 69541051, Raining12 69557959, wisenut 69558862, Croesus1 69522674, thetooch 69521551, rahrah 69521348, crab hunter 69520547, thetooch 69520510, kornik13 69559088, Brightoil 69565635, Hawarani 69566035, Upgrade, resource update, OIP increase; longreach 69544172, Hateful8 69552878, Kit67 69539281, Discover light oil; Pete66 69562630, Nonspecific; ohmikeyoh 69551128, justinmetals 69552211, ratdog1031 69555770, GODS BROKER 69555266, Thadius 69534169, JP10 69529849, FidelCastro 69526735, mad max 69526036, Plans-3 69524984, Adsmag 69520687, Youngn1990 69520354, hummer666 69558849, donkeyswan44 69559078, MIKE008 69564116, Other; chand 69543241, Sammystead911 69543393, Teji 69521506, Downs 69521264.


Source: Negative outcome, duster, drill string stuck; jakspara 69544123, srh1978 69547480, discovery4 69525094, kalinda 69563019, Suspicious announcement strategy; integra 69543244, xesibic431 69522467, Recent share price indication; bollinger 69545443, Astrotrade 69521368, Rig taken; yysy 69527251, Weather problems; jwoody1000 69526566, Nonspecific; Smiteoff 69542629, xesibic431 69542836, Kangaroos67 69542863


Source: Interpretation control; Areo 69542318, neutral opinion; afawcett 69543424, Positive/Negative; johntie 69544681, Flambeau 69520740, Similar results, carrot on the stick; Gharp 69567406.

Conclusion: Good news sentiment overshadows bad news sentiment by about 3.7:1. Most attention in the good/bad sentiment surrounded the drill results, which is unsurprising since that is what we know will be announced. The ASX announcement did specify "announcement of Alameda-2 appraisal results" with the possibility of other information being announced.

This might be the first "sentiment analysis" on the hot copper forums. We like to have fun here, and yes I do consider this fun, God have mercy. For those that did not like their allocated category, I had to lay some ground rules, 1) I took your most extreme position/post, 2) hope =/= sentiment, many bearish users thought it would be bad, but hoped the opposite, so if your post was just "hope" I did not include it, 3) some users posted bullish/bearish reasonings, but I took what you "thought" it would be. In an ideal world I would spend way more time to get everyone where they 100% should be. e.g Some users just recently changed their sentiment, and I did not spend time on changing this (I used their older posts).

For those that like the idea of sentiment analysis, here is an extreme parody of it:

And before all reputation for this type of analysis goes out the window due to this above video, first of all reddit et. al. isn't considered the mainstay for knowledgeable investors, (garbage in, garbage out), whereas you would think hot copper users would be more adept at trading relatively speaking?

This analysis swayed my opinion, I am now leaning towards good news only for Monday's announcement.