I disagree, whether you know it or not, you are either consciously or subconsciously performing your own sentiment analysis on this very forum whereby you involve yourself in arguments, criticisms or comments. Sentiment analysis has been a major breakthrough in stock market analysis, "sentiment analysis has also been used to predict the price of bitcoin in real time" (they used Bitcoin as an example because it is universally understood, the source article actually performs its sentiment analysis on stocks, not crypto) source: Liapis, C., Karanikola, A., & Kotsiantis, S. (2023). Investigating Deep Stock Market Forecasting with Sentiment Analysis. Entropy, 25(2).
Source: Hot copper users' speculative predictions, whose 'vote' is derived from their recent posts. A user was categorised as 'good news sentiment' if they made a prediction about whether they thought the news was 'good', and so on and so forth.
Source:
Production wells, Commerciality, Monetise, Oil Trucked; Wilko16
69541910, Feral54
69543088, sus
69526107, mwatts
6954435469526981, Spitfire
69526169, Krakour
69523174,
Take over, more CUPET involvement, Joint Venture+; rushrush
69521037, charkie
69557533, 1956
69526945, Sharetrader78
69525335, hombre cara
69523330, signalFollower
69566791,
Flow rates, Flow to surface, Great results, Extended flow test; the flow
69542571, mattymcc
69519401, alexei ii
69545756, Vince120
69541051, Raining12
69557959, wisenut
69558862, Croesus1
69522674, thetooch
69521551, rahrah
69521348, crab hunter
69520547, thetooch
69520510, kornik13
69559088, Brightoil
69565635, Hawarani
69566035,
Upgrade, resource update, OIP increase; longreach
69544172, Hateful8
69552878, Kit67
69539281,
Discover light oil; Pete66
69562630,
Nonspecific; ohmikeyoh
69551128, justinmetals
69552211, ratdog1031
69555770, GODS BROKER
69555266, Thadius
69534169, JP10
69529849, FidelCastro
69526735, mad max
69526036, Plans-3
69524984, Adsmag
69520687, Youngn1990
69520354, hummer666
69558849, donkeyswan44
69559078, MIKE008
69564116,
Other; chand
69543241, Sammystead911
69543393, Teji
69521506, Downs
69521264.
Source:
Negative outcome, duster, drill string stuck; jakspara
69544123, srh1978
69547480, discovery4
69525094, kalinda
69563019,
Suspicious announcement strategy; integra
69543244, xesibic431
69522467,
Recent share price indication; bollinger
69545443, Astrotrade
69521368, Rig taken; yysy
69527251,
Weather problems; jwoody1000
69526566,
Nonspecific; Smiteoff
69542629, xesibic431
69542836, Kangaroos67
69542863
Source:
Interpretation control; Areo
69542318,
neutral opinion; afawcett
69543424,
Positive/Negative; johntie
69544681, Flambeau
69520740,
Similar results, carrot on the stick; Gharp
69567406.
Conclusion: Good news sentiment overshadows bad news sentiment by about 3.7:1. Most attention in the good/bad sentiment surrounded the drill results, which is unsurprising since that is what we know will be announced. The ASX announcement did specify "announcement of Alameda-2 appraisal results" with the possibility of other information being announced.
This might be the first "sentiment analysis" on the hot copper forums. We like to have fun here, and yes I do consider this fun, God have mercy. For those that did not like their allocated category, I had to lay some ground rules, 1) I took your most extreme position/post, 2) hope =/= sentiment, many bearish users thought it would be bad, but hoped the opposite, so if your post was just "hope" I did not include it, 3) some users posted bullish/bearish reasonings, but I took what you "thought" it would be. In an ideal world I would spend way more time to get everyone where they 100% should be. e.g Some users just recently changed their sentiment, and I did not spend time on changing this (I used their older posts).
For those that like the idea of sentiment analysis, here is an extreme parody of it:
And before all reputation for this type of analysis goes out the window due to this above video, first of all reddit et. al. isn't considered the mainstay for knowledgeable investors, (garbage in, garbage out), whereas you would think hot copper users would be more adept at trading relatively speaking?
This analysis swayed my opinion, I am now leaning towards good news only for Monday's announcement.
(20min delay)
