Hi guys an gals, from info taken from latest webinar and investor presentations and other public sources, aided by AI, I have made a futuristic cash flow calculation to see when and how big next CR is... enjoy!
Disclaimer: This analysis is an estimated projected speculative calculation based on assumed revenue phasing, device pricing, and expected capital requirements. Actual results may vary significantly due to market conditions, operational changes, or other unforeseen factors. Ask your financial advisor to make informed decisions.Comprehensive Funding and Cash Flow Analysis (Estimated Projected Speculative Calculations)
Background Information:
- Current Cash Burn Rate: $1.0 million per month.
- Revenue Phasing: Gradual ramp-up, fully covering costs by May 2026.
- Average Estimated Device Price: €11,000 per device.
- Exchange Rate Assumption: €1 = AUD 1.60.
1. Cash Flow and Funding Needs
Financial Position as of End September 2024:
- Cash in Bank: $4.0 million
- Expected R&D Refund: $1.5 million ( higher RnD expenses as of recently, ie Sydney facility)
- New Funds from 2024 CR: $8.0 million
Projected Cash by End December 2024:
- Expected Cash Burn (Oct to Dec 2024): $3.0 million
- Total Available Cash by End December 2024:(4.0+1.5+8.0)−3.0=10.5 million(4.0+1.5+8.0)−3.0=10.5 million
Cash Burn from January to May 2025:
- Burn from January to May 2025 (5 months):5×1.0=5.0 million5×1.0=5.0 million
- Remaining Cash by May 2025:10.5−5.0=5.5 million10.5−5.0=5.5 million
2. Funding Requirement for May 2025 to May 2026 (13 Months, Preserving $5.5M Buffer by End May 2026)
We will calculate the full funding requirement needed to cover operating costs from May 2025 to May 2026, without subtracting the $5.5 million available in May 2025, so that this amount remains as a buffer by the end of May 2026.
Phased Funding Requirement:
Q3 2025 (July - September 2025): Revenue covers 10% of monthly costs
- Net Monthly Requirement: $1.0 million - (10% of $1.0 million) = $0.9 million
- Total for 3 months:3×0.9=2.7 million3×0.9=2.7 million
Q4 2025 - Q1 2026 (October 2025 - March 2026): Revenue covers 25% of monthly costs
- Net Monthly Requirement: $1.0 million - (25% of $1.0 million) = $0.75 million
- Total for 6 months:6×0.75=4.5 million6×0.75=4.5 million
Q2 2026 (April - June 2026): Revenue covers 50% of monthly costs
- Net Monthly Requirement: $1.0 million - (50% of $1.0 million) = $0.5 million
- Total for 3 months:3×0.5=1.5 million3×0.5=1.5 million
May 2026 (full break-even): Revenue fully covers monthly costs, so no additional funding required.
Total Adjusted Funding Requirement (Without Subtracting May 2025 Cash):
2.7+4.5+1.5=8.7 million2.7+4.5+1.5=8.7 millionRevised Capital Raise Target
Since we are keeping the $5.5 million cash available in May 2025 as a buffer, the total capital raise target for May 2025 should be $8.7 million to cover operational costs through May 2026.
3. Shares to Be Issued and Dilution (Based on Revised CR Amount)
Share Price at CR Time: $0.02 (2 cents) ESTIMATE - Let's hope so !!
Shares to Be Issued in May 2025 CR:
Shares to Be Issued=Capital to Be RaisedShare Price=8,700,0000.02=435,000,000 sharesShares to Be Issued=Share PriceCapital to Be Raised=0.028,700,000=435,000,000 sharesPost-CR Share Count:
- Current Shares Outstanding: 4.6 billion
- New Shares Issued: 435 million
- Total Shares After CR:4,600,000,000+435,000,000=5,035,000,000 shares4,600,000,000+435,000,000=5,035,000,000 shares
Dilution Percentage:
Dilution Percentage=New Shares IssuedTotal Shares After CR×100=435,000,0005,035,000,000×100=8.64%Dilution Percentage=Total Shares After CRNew Shares Issued×100=5,035,000,000435,000,000×100=8.64%Summary of CR Impact:
- Shares to Be Issued: 435 million shares
- Post-CR Total Shares: 5.035 billion shares
- Dilution: 8.64% not too bad actuallly, takes the angst away ?!
4. Devices Needed to Cover Monthly Running Costs
Average Estimated Device Price: €11,000
- AUD Equivalent Per Device:11,000×1.60=17,600 AUD11,000×1.60=17,600 AUD
Devices Needed Per Month to Cover $1.0 Million Costs:
Devices Needed=Monthly CostsDevice Price=1,000,00017,600=56.8 devicesDevices Needed=Device PriceMonthly Costs=17,6001,000,000=56.8 devicesDevices Needed Per Month: 57 devices
5. Conservative Revenue Phasing and Break-Even Timeline
The company anticipates a conservative revenue ramp-up, reaching full break-even by May 2026. Here’s the revised phasing:
- Q3 2025 (July - September 2025): Revenue covers 10% of monthly costs.
- Q4 2025 - Q1 2026 (October 2025 - March 2026): Revenue covers 25% of monthly costs.
- Q2 2026 (April - June 2026): Revenue covers 50% of monthly costs.
- End of May 2026: Full break-even achieved, with revenue fully covering monthly costs.
Final Summary
Funding Needs with Conservative Phased Revenue (Keeping May 2025 Cash as Buffer):
- The company should raise $8.7 million in May 2025 to cover operational expenses until break-even in May 2026, preserving the $5.5 million cash expected in May 2025 as a buffer.
Share Dilution:
- Shares to Be Issued: 435 million shares
- Post-CR Total Shares: 5.035 billion shares
- Dilution: 8.64%
Devices Needed for Monthly Cash Burn:
- Average Estimated Device Price: €11,000 (AUD 17,600)
- Devices Required Per Month: 57 devices
Conservative Revenue Phasing Timeline:
- Q3 2025 (July - September 2025): Revenue covers 10% of monthly costs.
- Q4 2025 - Q1 2026 (October 2025 - March 2026): Revenue covers 25% of costs.
- Q2 2026 (April - June 2026): Revenue covers 50% of costs.
- May 2026: Full break-even achieved, with revenue fully covering costs.
Disclaimer: This analysis is an estimated projected speculative calculation based on assumed revenue phasing, device pricing, and expected capital requirements. Actual results may vary significantly due to market conditions, operational changes, or other unforeseen factors. This is AI based research, errors can occur, do your own research and ask your fin. advisor.
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