Fair question, Gekkowolf — and I get where the frustration comes from. The $3 million quarterly burn has been a big overhang, but we’re now starting to see some genuine cost relief kick in, which should start showing up in the numbers soon.
Here’s how I’ve broken it down:
Ethics approvals (MDR-related saving):
OncoSil has flagged it will save up to €2M over 3 years by no longer needing separate hospital ethics approvals (thanks to MDR). That works out to ~€167k per quarter, or ~$275k AUD using a 1.65 exchange rate. This saving is already active and ongoing.
Trial cost savings (TRIPP-FFX & PANCOSIL):
Assuming both trials cost about the same to administer, and based on recent recruitment updates:
TRIPP-FFX: ~18 patients per quarter
PANCOSIL: ~6 patients per quarter
Estimated cost: $12.5K USD per patient (based on procedure cost and ~50% margin)
But with both trials ending in May, only one month of savings applies to this quarter. So the June quarter likely sees:
So altogether, we’re looking at ~$457k AUD in estimated savings this quarter — not huge, but definitely a move in the right direction.
From the September quarter, full trial savings kick in, which should bring total quarterly savings to ~$820k AUD (ethics + trial costs). And that’s before any revenue growth is factored in.
Also worth noting: the Sydney manufacturing facility has come online this quarter. I’ve estimated an initial saving of $2,500 per patient (around 10%) across ~20 patients = ~$50k AUD this quarter. That figure is expected to ramp to $6,000 per patient (or ~$120k per quarter) after December 2025 as volume increases.
Now on the topic of dilution — the 1.91 billion OSLOB options expiring 30 June 2025 at a strike of 0.9c have been known about for almost a year so further dilution is not exactly a surprise.
Yes, the November 2024 raise was poorly timed — it felt forced and completely derailed the momentum we had from the G-BA approval. But that unexpected raise might actually mean we won’t need to raise as much this time around.
And if another raise is needed, it could be done via a placement to an institutional or strategic investor- which would help strengthen the share registry and attract longer-term interest from the kind of investors we need on the journey.
Let’s see what shows up in the quarterly by month-end — no pressure on me with all these projections, right?
Good try.
(20min delay)