Fair call on the past—no argument here. Oncosil’s history is littered with capital raises, delays, and was poorly run by previous management. Retail holders have worn most of it, and it’s no surprise the market’s still side-eyeing everything.
That said, I’m not looking at this through rose-coloured glasses—just trying to work with the numbers we do have and see what’s shifting. And yep, guilty as charged—I ran my post through ChatGPT. I like my spelling neat and my posts less of a slog.
Now, about those numbers…
Last quarter’s $339k in revenue? That likely understates actual activity. Hospitals often take 60–90 days to pay, so what’s reported now doesn’t necessarily reflect what was actually done in that period. There’s a lag, which makes it messy if you’re trying to track traction purely through the cash flow line.
I’ve put together some rough assumptions based on publicly known pricing:
$25,000 USD per procedure
~30% discount for distributor sales (OncoSil books around $17,500 USD in those cases)
Convert that to AUD (using a 0.62 FX rate) and you’re looking at:
~$40,322 per direct procedure
~$28,225 per distributor procedure
Here's how I see it stacking up:
December quarter:
~11 procedures (3 direct, 8 indirect) → $339k AUD booked
(but probably more actually performed)
March quarter (just ended):
~15 procedures (4 direct, 11 indirect) → ~$471k AUD
June quarter (currently underway):
6 direct
9 distributor
6 G-BA (now revenue-generating)
6 PANCOSIL (also revenue-generating)
= 27 procedures total, which gets us to $833k AUD ($517k USD) revenue
So no, it’s not a rocket launch yet—but it is a real ramp.
And just as important: the cost side is about to look a whole lot better.
Trial expenses for TRIPP-FFX and PANCOSIL end this quarter
Ethics approvals? No longer needed EUR 2M savings over 3 years
Sydney facility comes online next quarter, meaning reduced manufacturing costs
As volumes grow, COGS drop significantly, with OncoSil forecasting gross margins above 75% per dose
Lastly, the G-BA program in Germany shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve cleared the big hurdles (funding + ethics), and their health system is designed to scale validated technologies. From what I can gather, the ramp there could be fast and hard—possibly the biggest near-term catalyst on the table.
So yeah, the long-term story’s been rough—no question. But there’s a decent case to be made that the next few quarters might finally look very different.
(20min delay)