Today, I had just managed to read EuroZ Hartleys Research report...

Today, I had just managed to read EuroZ Hartleys Research report dated 17 Nov.
Capex A$130m for restart of SW-EX plant for 19.6 Kt /yr for 10 years at ASIC US$1.95c/lb
N another Capex of A$55m for the restart of concentrate operation for 26 Kt/yr for 10 years at asic US$1.91/lb
I will Presume that the concentrate restart is financed from cashflow

I had bought with the assumption that BC will only run the Sw-EX plant than put their time to getting Maroochy into operation.
N put the concentrate plant in reserve.

19.6 Kt plates + 26Kt conc. = 46000 ton Cu = 100 m lb copper/yr
Let said 100m lb X usd1.5 lb profit ( US$3.50 -US $2.00 lb Asic) = $150m x 1.4 A$ = $210m x 70% = A$147m /yr net profit after tax
If CU $3/lb 100m x US$1/lb x A$1.4 x 0.7 = A$98m/yr net profit after tax
Presume 30% tax
This is less than our current m. cap.
Funds required : Capex $130m - Cash if now $30m + $36m from convertible loan ( Presume not convented by Apr 2025 when dued. )
= debt $136m.
If debt is used for the concentrate restart add $55m
Total Debt $136m + 55m = A$191m
This compared favorably with C6C debt load of C$343m on Sept 21.

my expectation of M. cap for CYM now is to be the same m. cap as C6C. ie $784m by 2025
784m/668.4m = $1.17/sh 6.9 x current price of 17c

Why
CYM will also be expected to produce 100 m/lb /yr. I just need to wait till 2024/2025
there is no reason why they cannot produce 100 m lb/year with the BC team.
There is no one to throw a spanner into the works or pull the rug under BC team.
There is no country risk in Australia. No road blockage by the locals like in Chile.
no unexpected tax increase or royalty increase after capital is sunk and mine is in operation.

Only I will not be surprise if there is a proper takeover offer once Cu is produced and m. cap. still remain low.
than we only need to look at P/E ratio.
N no need worries on being arm twisted to sell.
So Just need to sit tight.
The market, I know is imperfect. Now in fearful mode.

At these prices, I will load up more next week.

DYOR