@SkyPunterWhilst this is not new news, it is still fantastic for...

@SkyPunter

Whilst this is not new news, it is still fantastic for all PB players to have the spotlight on the significance of the whole Perth Basin.

Although light on disclosure of the pricing details it won't be long before the market gets to see the revenue / margin numbers come through BPT's accounts, when they start exporting in 2nd half CY23. IMO the numbers will be very significant. Remember LNG spot prices have sky rocketed this year with the JKM price reaching a record high of ~$84 MMBtu in March. Even sitting at A$40 will mean BPT will be printing money for 5 years. Which they will (IMO) use to bolster their balance sheet and use for M&A purposes in the PB. Perfect scenario for them... how "lucky" to get that exemption hey?

As for NWE (and other PB coys) it will only be a matter of time before other NWS 3rd party tolling deals are announced. The NWS JV will need to plug a significant 1,000TJ hole by 2030... so it will need many more Waitsia deals to ensure capacity is utilised. IMO the 5 year deal with BPT will only be extended.

Worth noting that the Waitsia Stage 2 expansion was costed ~ AUD$768m back in Dec 2020. It will responsible for hundreds of jobs for the construction and then ongoing ops. If NWE / MIN do end up building a 375TJ p/d gas plant for LD (plus pipelines etc. which is 1.5 times the size of Waitsia so think $1+bn capex)... and when combined with the downstream processing (i.e. MIN's lithium and IO) then NWE / MIN will quite easily justify the approval for LNG export. It will be a rubber stamp exercise IMO - every body will win. The economics for that business case will be very compelling.

I'm also half expecting something to come from the Japanese coys. I'm not aware of signed gas sales for Mitsui's share of their Waitsia gas... likely to go to NWS too?... but also Mitsui's JV partner in the NWS is Mitsubishi... so possible that something could come out of that "friendship"....

Lots to keep an eye out for... very exciting times.