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02/11/22

09:43

Post #: 64538126
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Originally posted by desertredlion: ↑

Joe was quite accommodating regarding questions. The facilitator kept asking for participants to type questions into a box on the Zoom screen.

There's one thing I've been wondering about -- and it's way beyond my very limited ability to perform company research. I'm sure yourself, or one of the more financially literate posters will have an idea about this....

Looking forward over the next two years: In December the NZ icon on the pipeline map turns green. SA1 and VIC1 commence construction in March 2023. There are no delays whatsoever and both projects are completed smoothly in June the following year. Towards the end of next year, QLD1 and perhaps the Brickworks plant commence construction.

I'm pulling Michael J Fox out of the driver's seat and carjacking his Delorean for a few minutes here. Travelling forward to June 2024, I'm assuming two plants are fully operational and we're getting 40% of the 1.2 MW from VIC1, and 50% of the 150 TJ of gas from SA1. We're selling that either through Origin Energy or through our newly-revived Retail division.

What type of ballpark numbers are we looking at for revenue from these completed sites? Of course, based upon what energy we know the sites will be generating, and anticipated energy prices in late 2024?

Late 2024 power prices, and the actual power output of each plant is obviously unknown. But to take a wild guess, if we had that energy to sell, what would our earnings look like? Is there any way of forecasting this in advance?

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I suspect most income on SA1 and VIC1 will come from O & M and management fees, plus the construction margins from building the plants. The leftovers from what remains of 50% of whatever is left after the first 12% is taken by Palisade is just a small bonus. I would hope DEL would be taking the construction margins from its 3 upcoming builds and looking to use that to have a more substantial holding in future projects. With the initial projects for better or worse the majority of DELs revenue wont come from directly from energy sales.

DEL Price at posting: 8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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1 Great analysis

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