I have not done any financial modelling on either VIC1 or SA1 to...

I have not done any financial modelling on either VIC1 or SA1 to date. I asked DEL to provide EBITDA guidance in 2021 on these projects are they were reluctant to do so, presumably so many variables on the revenue line could change, so I don't blame them. I think once these plants are up and running the opex line item should remain fairly static.

DEL provided the below guidance in their 2021 prospectus. I'd like to see an update to these given the assumptions underpinning the numbers would have changed a lot since the time they were made public.

I would note that the tonnages have changed (based on the latest 4E release) - so there is automatically going to be revenue upside from these published numbers below.

VIC 1 OLD (below): 40,000t pa
VIC 2 NEW (4E): 54,000t pa

SA1 OLD (below): 60,000t pa
SA1 NEW (4E): 70,000t pa

These tonnages also do not include any expansion (stage 2) upside scenarios.

VIC Project:

SA1 Project:



I think the easiest approach would be to model things up on a 100% basis first.

The above numbers also do not include any attribution from ACCUs (possible upside) and Digestate (possible upside). I'd probably form a view around a base case first and then expand the detail from there. Instead of getting into the rats and mice around what the EBITDA line would be, I would probably just model out the revenue line for both (across 25 years), apply indexation to the revenue line and then form a view around EBITDA assuming 60% EBITDA margins and sensitive that EBITDA margin assumption.

Take of 12% for Palisade's cut
Cut that number into 50% and that is the residual left over for DEL.

@Del Management - can you please provide us current numbers for the above two projects based on your latest estimates (update your prospectus numbers). This would be helpful to understand.

As said, I have not modelled any of this.... probably should at some point.