IXC 2.86% 7.2¢ invex therapeutics ltd

Knowing zero about IXC I won't comment specifically. Some...

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    Knowing zero about IXC I won't comment specifically.

    Some general comments:
    • It doesn't make sense to compare market caps of Biotech companies with drugs in different therapeutic areas.
      • The comparison needs to start from a perspective of size of market or revenue potential ( there should also be some kind of relationship between peak sales estimates and size of a potential M&A deal - more on this below )
      • You need to go off and find publicly-listed clinical-stage Biotechs focusing on the same diseases and use their market cap and clinical maturity as a basis for peer comparison (you will need to broaden your research to companies publicly listed overseas )
    • Most M&A spend is in cancer therapies so I think this is a big factor in investor interest in them
    • My own analysis is that buyout transactions for cancer drugs are anywhere from 2.6x to 10.4x analyst estimates of peak sales. Average of the group of 6 transactions I analysed is about 5.6x peak sales.
      • The metrics wouldn't be the same for other therapeutics (you would need to go off and find some buyout examples for therapies similar to the ones that IXC are working on and then work out some peak sales to buyout metrics)
    • This link has an interactive chart where you can see a comparison of Big Pharma M&A spend.
      It gives you an idea of where Big Pharma focuses M&A dollars. Data is a little old now.
      https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/data-insights/ma/biopharmas-big-bet-cancer-laid-bare
    RAC isn't repurposing their drug. The focus for the drug remains on cancer. RAC's drug is an old forgotten cancer drug that was historically approved in France for treatment of Leukaemia but has trials history for a wide range of cancers.
 
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