PPSA will derisk the project big time.
What is more, the price of natural gas is at a 25 year low. The following article suggests that the bottom is in (seems likely given it is a 25 year low and that this resistance level has not been broken for the same period):
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/the-bottom-is-in-for-natural-gas-1415269
But demand remains a problem because of the El Nino weather pattern, which has played an important role in the much warmer than usual northern winters (hence demand for natural gas has been relatively low). But La Nina is predicted to start middle of the year... but that is the period of warmer seasons in the northern hemisphere, which uses a disproportionately large amount of gas relative to countries in the southern hemisphere.
The IVZ chart:
The recent announcement regarding the result of the recent CR has resulted in the SP falling through the resistance level at circa 10c. The SP quickly fell to 8.5c, and while the bounce to 8.7c looks and smells like a dead cat bounce, I think that may well just have been depressed buying action because of the general state of the market over Thurs and Fri.
There are two more resistance levels: just under 7c and another just over 5c. I'm not sure that the SP will break the resistance level of 8.5c, since the SP of IVZ has more or less reliably tracked the price of natural gas, and, given that the price of gas has not broken the level at which it sits currently, it seems quite probable that the price of gas will bounce off its current level and this should see some upward pressure on the IVZ SP.
Furthermore, given this situation, and the likelihood that those parties in Zimbabwe interested in investing IVZ have good relationships with those in government, it is likely that they will encourage the govt to sign off on a PPSA before the gas price (and so IVZ SP) ascends significantly, so that they can invest in IVZ at the lowest price some time
before the PPSA is announced (assuming that there is indeed a sustained downtrend in SP till then). That way they could maximise their profits, by taking short-term profits by selling after the PPSA is granted, and then reinvest due to the dip because of the selling pressure largely caused by their short-term selling. But this analysis is largely hypothetical and speculative... any ideas on when the PPSA is due?
Given this analysis, it seems to me as though it may well be a good time to invest in IVZ. But this is just my amateurish analysis and is not financial advice. DYOR.
In any case, however things pan out, the next few months should be interesting for IVZ and investors. Good luck to all.
