Overall I'm really happy with the presentation. It would have been nice to get material news but given the constraint of no new material info, it reaffirmed the status of the company regarding the major issues facing it, namely the PPSA and funding. The one negative imo is we still lack a timeline for when field work will commence. However, this is understandable as it is likely dependent on both the PPSA and funding being secured.
It looks like there's several interpretations of what was said. We will likely have a replay posted on youtube soon but in the interim my recollection/interpretation is as follows:
- Regarding Mutapa Investment Fund (aka Sovereign Wealth Fund), Scott mentioned them as a partner but also mentioned it in the context of their 10% back in right. Therefore, I interpreted Mutapa becoming a partner solely through their 10% back in right (as well as receiving the government's profit/product share). It's possible they will farm in further but this would be very unusual; from what I've seen, most governments take their free share and nothing more. If they take a bigger stake either through a CR or additional farm in, I would be pleasantly surprised but that's definitely not my baseline expectation.
- Many have mentioned that Scott implied no more capital raises (CRs). I agree in the context of PAC raises but disagree otherwise. Scott has strongly indicated that they are working with Mangwana to raise additional funds among Zimbabwean institutional investors and this will almost certainly be done via a capital raise (CR). This isn't a bad thing especially considering the hints that others have mentioned that the CR might be done at a premium to the share price. Another interesting aspect of the capital raise linked by Jakspara is that there was a 6 month lockup period in which Mangwana couldn't sell their shares. This helps ensure that those participating in the capital raise are truly investing in the company rather than just dumping on existing shareholders (if CR is done at a discount to current market price).
- Scott strongly indicated that they are actively working on bringing in a farm in partner to fund the next 18 to 24 months of work. He talked about working on the data room and taking in bids in the near future. He further mentioned about this farm in partner bringing in O&G expertise. In my opinion, this rules out Mutapa as the primary farm in partner. As mentioned in my first bullet, I think Mutapa will just get their 10% back in right likely right before FID (or however late they are allowed to exercise their back in right and not a moment sooner). The farm in partner will almost certainly be another O&G company, likely an upstream company but maybe a service company. I'm unfamiliar with service companies farming in but Scott has mentioned it as a possibility multiple times; upstream companies are much more common.
- At one point Scott seemed to imply that there might already be a date for the PPSA signing that he can't yet share. I might have misheard or misinterpreted what he said but that definitely piqued my interest.
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