Ann: Invictus Energy Total Prospective Resource Update 9.25 Tcf, page-22

More than happy with the announcement today personally. This target is huge for a conventional onshore play. The share price action, not really a fan off but oh well for now.


I don't think you'll find another junior with an 80% stake in an onshore target of this size anywhere in the world. In fact I can pretty much guarantee it for an onshore play. This really is Elephant scale (1 Billion barrels +). Even after selling off a stake in the farm out, the remaining stake to IVZ will be very large.


The 11% chance of success is standard, you have to realise that this project has all the ingredients of a monster discovery, but at the end of the day it's binary, it's either there or it's not. Saying that even a modest discovery will send this thing on a huge run (multiples), it's now time for a farm out and as alluded to, the company is in talks with major players. The majors will surely see this as a cheap option compared to drilling offshore for $50mil+ a well.


You also have to consider the infrastructure around Mzarabani with an existing pipeline, dual carriage bitumen roads. This project becomes very attractive in terms of a play for a major to come in and spend $10-15mil on a well and potentially reap huge reward.


A lot to like in my view, but as always each to their own.