NVA (ASX) Ann: Invitation to Investor Webinar and CEO interview

Originally posted by sagisagi: ↑

I'm actually relatively reassured by some of the answers today.

To get the point out of the way, they absolutely need someone on the team to run their PR/comms/interviews - Chris is OK at it, Louie is very poor at it.

I think the fundamental point about the SS that has been overlooked (which isn't investors fault as management didn't explain it in the announcement) is that they made the long term decision to go for a higher capex plant that will supply the entire Estelle region as opposed to just Korbel Main. So the scoping study is comparing an Estelle wide plant with the returns from a small indicated portion of just Korbel Main (no wonder people's IRR expectations weren't met). Important to note that even with this imbalanced comparison it would still be profitable (which is why management are excited). They could have elected to go for a smaller plant (incapable of supplying Estelle) and improve the IRR numbers but that would have been a short term decision lacking long term substance. The vital point here is that given they have accounted for an Estelle wide plant, they can now bring on other prospects with limited additional capex, so every development from here (Korbel expansion, RPM prospect, other prospects) will improve SS numbers. Lots of upside potential.

Other points of interest from webinar:
-Slurry pipeline will pass by other prospects so that when the time is right they can tap into the pipeline too.
-Louie repeatedly mentioned that they are not looking to CR soon as evidenced by the directors ~$500k on market purchases in the past couple days.
-The RPM pipeline will allow them to tweak the grade of the gold being processed at the Korbel plant based on the gold price at the time - enables flexibility.

Whatever your opinion on the likelihood of the above eventuating, it's probability is certainly not 0. Yet the market is valuing it at near 0 (once LITM is accounted for). As Chris mentioned, at current prices you either get LITM for free or NVA for free.

Expand

I just top up more shares. I guess the dump was more to do with some people missed the previous CR and NVA immediate annourced a good news. But the current share price is really a bargain, it should be $2~$3 once RPM drill get more good result.

Originally posted by sagisagi: ↑

I'm actually relatively reassured by some of the answers today.

To get the point out of the way, they absolutely need someone on the team to run their PR/comms/interviews - Chris is OK at it, Louie is very poor at it.

I think the fundamental point about the SS that has been overlooked (which isn't investors fault as management didn't explain it in the announcement) is that they made the long term decision to go for a higher capex plant that will supply the entire Estelle region as opposed to just Korbel Main. So the scoping study is comparing an Estelle wide plant with the returns from a small indicated portion of just Korbel Main (no wonder people's IRR expectations weren't met). Important to note that even with this imbalanced comparison it would still be profitable (which is why management are excited). They could have elected to go for a smaller plant (incapable of supplying Estelle) and improve the IRR numbers but that would have been a short term decision lacking long term substance. The vital point here is that given they have accounted for an Estelle wide plant, they can now bring on other prospects with limited additional capex, so every development from here (Korbel expansion, RPM prospect, other prospects) will improve SS numbers. Lots of upside potential.

Other points of interest from webinar:
-Slurry pipeline will pass by other prospects so that when the time is right they can tap into the pipeline too.
-Louie repeatedly mentioned that they are not looking to CR soon as evidenced by the directors ~$500k on market purchases in the past couple days.
-The RPM pipeline will allow them to tweak the grade of the gold being processed at the Korbel plant based on the gold price at the time - enables flexibility.

Whatever your opinion on the likelihood of the above eventuating, it's probability is certainly not 0. Yet the market is valuing it at near 0 (once LITM is accounted for). As Chris mentioned, at current prices you either get LITM for free or NVA for free.

Expand

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	50778	15.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50778

15.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
17.0¢	20036	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

17.0¢

20036

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	50778	0.155
4	141834	0.150
4	175742	0.145
3	420000	0.140
2	27000	0.135

No.

Vol.

Price($)

50778

0.155

141834

0.150

175742

0.145

420000

0.140

27000

0.135

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.170	20036	1
0.175	10000	1
0.180	37701	4
0.185	5555	2
0.195	104995	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.170

20036

0.175

10000

0.180

37701

0.185

5555

0.195

104995

(20min delay)
Last 16.0¢		Change 0.005(3.23%)		Mkt cap ! $38.96M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
15.5¢	16.0¢	15.5¢	$40.76K	260.7K

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