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Ann: IOT Group completes $11.975M capital raising-IOT.AX, page-197

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rajeagle

59 Posts.

08/07/16

07:18

Post #: 18221645
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Originally posted by nihilism ↑

You're technically correct in that extra capital (i.e. cash) isn't necessarily dilution if you're looking at enterprise value (which is market cap - cash).

However there are 2 things you should know:

1. When the raise happened, this was ~9c yet the raise was done at 7c, thus there is dilution in the form of share price differential. The raising of 11.975 million, put 171million shares on the stock at a 9cent valuation. This means the market cap (on that day) grew by 15.39 million. You could argue that this discount in raising price, diluted the company by the difference in those 2 numbers (which is ~3.4million).

As you can see, the market reaction (after most capital raises, not just IOT) is to come down towards the raising price, which effectively reduces this dilution. The market can then reevaluate the new capital on its merits and expected cash outflows.

2. While enterprise value doesn't necessarily change with a capital raise, the market cap definitely does. What you as an investor needs to look at (and what the market does) is evaluate cash burn prior to cash in flows.

Currently for IOT, there is a lot of uncertainty about cash in flows (magnitude, timing, brand new product etc) so a lot of attention will be paid to the potential cash outflows (which have been managed pretty well so far) to see how long it will be before there is another capital raising.

This second point is why I believe it has slowly dropped towards the capital raising price, rather than falling like a stone towards it, the market sees some value in raising capital now (at much higher prices than 4-5 months ago) to keep this operation going towards production.

I hope this helps,

nih.

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That's awesome. Thanks for taking the time to explain. I appreciate it Nihi. We all wait with baited breath then for the firm sale announcements. Cheers man.

IOT Price at posting: 7.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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