Ann: iPPS Demonstrates Multiple DMOAD Signals in Phase 2 Study, page-233

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Gan_Gans

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13/04/23

21:41

Post #: 67265248
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Originally posted by Dungiven: ↑

Chel, I can see how this is the first conclusion to be reached - but it's not like you can say with any confidence that a deal this year will not be similarly impacted by the same tough credit environment. Don't forget, potential partners can also factor in the price of credit and leverage the pressure which that puts on PAR to get the best terms for themselves. Company's might even prefer to batten down the hatches (e.g. pay down debt) in such an environment, than splurge on deals with high up-front costs. Unfortunately, when you need money, the credit environment is inescapable, regardless of which way you turn. And PAR are a company that needs money. However, who's to say that locking in a long-term deal in this environment isn't ultimately leaving more on the table than dilution from a CR (or two) to tide us over?

Whatever way anyone can look at this, PAR (and us as shareholders) were always going to have to trade sizeable collateral to get to the finish line. The credit environment exacerbates that. But the idea that management can just magic us all out of that particular problem by signing a deal is terribly simplistic. In fact, if a deal doesn't meet their valuations, i'd almost prefer the dilution and suppressed-price of intermittent CRs in the short-term to progress the asset and improve our chances of locking-in company-making deals at or above value. I get the feeling some retailers are simply wavering, and want a quick deal because of the confidence boost it could provide them personally, rather than it being the best thing for the company in the long-term.

Conscious that you (and others) are probably referring to an MPS deal, rather than anything for OA - but this situation still stands regardless. I haven't seen a lot of actual analysis (aside from the odd notable and obvious exception) on this forum over the years on an MPS deal. Makes me think that, hot on the heels of the over-emotional dumping on this forum when the 6-month 008 results didn't send the SP into orbit, we now just have some second-wave hysteria about signing a deal (any deal) to avoid a CR (any CR).

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Pity Dungiven can’t say the removal of moving forward with TGA provisional approval would solve a lot for his gnashing of the teeth in this regard.

that is what has blown out the share price.

PAR Price at posting: $1.10 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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