This has been my worst investment decision to date. Have done a...

This has been my worst investment decision to date. Have done a postmortem a few times, but now it's time to figure out whether it's worth keeping at current levels.

Guidance at 27-29m EBITA
4-5m hit on above (assume 27m and 5m)
= 22m EBITA

If we ignore the amortisation (cash has already gone out the door) and the tax-benefit that arises, we can treat this number as EBIT. Therefore;
- Interest = 3.5m (conservatively - their current IR is lower than 6%)
NPBT = 18.5m

- Tax on 18.5m = 5.55
NPAT = 12.95m

So assuming government funding for Quantum is pulled, this will be the outcome.
On the above it doesn't look too bad, but there is the possibility that financial liabilities arise from previous years. If we assume 2 years of this to be paid back to the TEC, that's $6-8m + penalties, which will dent next year's profitability substantially.

If the company can survive this hit, then it may be worth holding. But the 'if' is the unknown.