re: Ann: Iron Valley Project Results of Pre-f...
Hmmmmm... I'll leave the valuations to the experts, there are simply too many variables to really have a good crack at this stage, but a few things that probably are important:
1. The iron ore at IV is indicated (not inferred) and soon to be calculated as reserves, moving into DFS. This would under normal circumstances make the resource more valuable p/t than a buy-out of an inferred resource.
2. The outcome of Anketell Port is important. If it's AQA then we have at least two irons in the fire and we are in a better position to negotiate. If it's FMG we have less bargaining power as all of our deposits will pretty much rely on an FMG rail and/or port.
3. Our current cash position is very good, and if the EOI process can yield more cash we are not dependant on a deal to survive medium term. I'm sure we all want deals done yesterday but at least we are in a position to be a little bit selective at this time.
I would respectfully suggest (IMHO) that there will be no massive T/O offer for IOH. Stokes wants a cash cow and this might turn into a very good long term investment but I doubt it's going to be a quick multi-bagger from here. Twiggy Forrest hates dilution and he's not going to throw scrip around willy nilly, and no domestic player is going to cough up $1 billion for IOH it's simply too much cash in the current climate.
A foreign bid (Wah Nam style) is possible but there is no way we are going to get a premium unless we have rail and port agreements locked away. Nobody on this Earth is going to throw money at stranded Iron Ore deposits unless they have the means to walk in and build a railway and a port.
IOH Price at posting:
$1.35 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
