Figure of "growth in high single digit range" refers to revenue and EBITDA, not NPAT.
Does this change any of above workings? I'm pretty new to this but if say 8% growth, FY17 revenue would be about 168m, assume operating margin 32.3% and DA about 13m as per Fy16 (and 15), then EBITDA about 54m, EBIT 41m. This is about 4m higher than FY16, so if this all went to NPAT (is this a fair assumption) then NPAT FY17 would be about 30m, meaning EPS 15c for FY17.
Until the EBIT line I'm roughly in agreement with you (I've got $39m in EBIT), but below the EBIT line we are further apart.
The reason for that is your assumption that "This (here you are referring to FY17 EBIT) is about 4m higher than FY16, so if this all went to NPAT (is this a fair assumption)" is actually not a fair assumption.
Because it won't all go to NPAT for the simply reason that it will be subject to provision for corporate tax. So maybe 70% of the $4m of incremental EBIT will go to NPAT in FY17.
(Also below the EBIT line, the interest expense is likely to be a bit higher in FY17 than FY16, because average debt levels will be higher due to ISD still having to make an $19m payment this year, which is a contingent consideration payment for the 2015 acquisition of Content King.)
So, for what its worth, I get NPAT (as opposed to NPATA) of $27m, or 13.5cps for FY17.
Results in 18x P/E at today's closing share price.
ISD Price at posting:
$2.38 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
