Umm, yes unfortunately this type of Ann always seems to create...

Umm, yes unfortunately this type of Ann always seems to create confusion.
This ann has nothing to do with issues re covid-19 and relates (mainly) to the well known Austrac issue (& RC issues). The provision for the fine and other costs was obviously previously priced in and this ann wouldn't have been a major shock.
I daresay expected B&DD's have also been factored in, however the actual size of future provisions may surprise either way so there is still some significant unknowns there.
Without wanting to state the obvious, a quicker return to normal will see B&DD's minimised and a quicker return to economic stability and of course the converse for a longer drawn out restriction timeframe.
The instos have much better resources for analysing these things and they will generally set the price although there will always be instances of overshooting either way (for a number of reasons)
Specific predictions of carnage and length of recoveries etc on HC are purely guesses..............