IVZ

1.49%

6.8¢ invictus energy ltd

The CR came when it did because it was timed for after discovery...

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onthepunt

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2391

23/01/24

18:37

Post #: 72028429
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Originally posted by huaneng ↑

IF IVZ and SM would be 100% sure that we will see good commercial flow rates during the coming production flow test,
IVZ would do firstly with priority number one the production flow test and after presenting the results of this test
IVZ would collect more money for new shares at a much higher share price.
For future projects as more 3D seismik, more wells etc. There is no technical or geological logic that you need to have the funds of this future projects now. And the deepening of a well plus well test does not cost that much.

BUT IF IVZ is not sure to get a good well test flow rate,
then they try to get the money now (at the current low share price ) for future work.
They try to mitigate the risk that they have to shut down operations because nobody will want to give them money after a not commercial flow rate (of the coming well production test). SM has applied this tactic during the past capital raisings as well.

So because SM is not 100% sure to get a good, commercial test flow rate he is diluting IVZ now to have money to keep IVZ going with operations in the near future with the hope to see and to have a more successful IVZ after more seismik, more drilling in the future.

At the moment we have just 2 wells with two side tracks and the commerciality is questionable, status and reality check as of today.

Although I do not rule out that there is a lot of gas in this basin. But as of today I see a good probability that hydraulic fracturing will be needed as well. (which is needed when you have tight, fluviatil sand bodies as reservoirs. ) I think we can only hope that the current pipe dream, the deepening of the Mukuyu 2, first sidetrack well will be a game changer to get better production rates (overpressured gas can help) from better reservoirs (compared to the till now discovered perhaps only marginal economically reservoirs, which could be good enough for a small IVZ but not for an empire and many new millionairs with Lambos in Australia )

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The CR came when it did because it was timed for after discovery imo. We all thought the SP would be higher. The perceived low (conservative) net pay didn’t help.
Plus there’s under $4.7m in the bank at end of December with seismic and flow testing to pay for. They had to raise when they did.

IVZ Price at posting: 10.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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